ARLINGTON, Texas — Here we go again.
Oklahoma and TCU have already met once this season, and they will do so again for the Big 12 Championship at 11:30 a.m. today at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. With so much on the line for the Sooners and the conference, it is sure to be an exciting matchup.
It was only three weeks ago when OU handled the Horned Frogs by a score of 38-20 in Norman, with most of the Sooners’ offensive production coming in the first half. OU played its most complete game since the road win against Ohio State, and the domination was clear, for it didn’t even need to score in the second half to beat then-No. 6 by 18 points.
With that said, there seems to be this idea, especially among people not in the state of Oklahoma that the Sooners DIDN’T absolutely dominate the first time these teams played.
It is one thing to watch a game on television, but I was at Gaylord Memorial Stadium covering that game, and what OU did was nothing short of impressive. The game wasn’t as close as the score indicated, which says a lot in and of itself.
In my column about the game, I said the only negative I could identify from the Sooners’ performance was the second-half urgency.
Although it was a smart strategy — given the teams were likely to play again — it was a total disservice to the record crowd that attended the contest. It also could’ve possibly served as ammunition for the committee to discredit the overall impressiveness of the win.
That didn’t happen, for the Sooners have been in the Top 4 since, but like I said, to the people who didn’t watch the game live or on TV, the box score can be misleading.
If a team puts up double zeros on the scoreboard in the second half, it is reasonable to assume it struggled in one way or another.
Of course, the score wasn’t the only misleading part of that ballgame.
The Sooners controlled the tempo for the duration of the contest, and if you were to look at the numbers without the score, you’d probably think it was a close game.
OU outgained TCU 533-424 in total yards, which isn’t that big of a difference. However, the Sooners gained 395 yards in the first half alone and led 38-14 at halftime — there wasn’t a need to put up big numbers after that.
Furthermore, if you look at third-down efficiency, the Horned Frogs went 4-of-13, while the Sooners finished 5-of-13.
Success on third downs can often be a revealing statistic, but even that stat can be deceptive. After all, six of OU’s eight failed third-down conversions came in the second half while playing conservatively.
The Sooners also won the first down battle, 21-19, but 16 of those came in the first half when they were trying to blow the Horned Frogs’ doors off. Managing only five first downs in second half is what happens when Baker Mayfield throws the ball only six times.
It is hard to beat a good team twice, and when adding in the revenge factor, along with proximity of AT&T Stadium to TCU’s campus (18 miles), I think the Horned Frogs will put up a better fight this time around. Not to mention TCU has one of the best coaches in the sport at its disposal in Gary Patterson — he will have his team ready to play.
However, considering the way Mayfield and OU are playing right now, I think the Horned Frogs are going to have a tough time slowing the Sooners down.
Unlike the last meeting, I expect a tightly-contested first half between the Big 12 powers, only for the Sooners to pull away in the latter stages, clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff for the second time in three seasons in the process…OU, 44-31.